
5 Rookies From 2024 Who Will Bounce Back and 5 Who Will Decline
Bounce-back breakout year or Sophomore slump for these 2024 NFL Draft picks? That is the million-dollar question for coaches and fans. While some second-year players are bound to improve from a frustrating rookie year, some of the top rookies of 2024 are facing the unfortunate reality of experiencing the well-documented sophomore slump.
Here are five rookies from 2024 who are set to bounce back in 2025, and five who will decline.
Which rookies from 2024 will have a solid campaign in 2025, and which ones will falter?
Bounce Back: Marvin Harrison Jr.

Regarded as a generational wide receiver prospect last year, Harrison Jr. didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard in his rookie season. The hype on the kid is so high that his 2024 campaign was considered a bit of a disappointment despite a stellar stat line of 62 receptions for 885 yards and eight touchdowns.
The rise of tight end Trey McBride, who emerged as Kyler Murray’s go-to weapon, didn’t help matters for Harrison Jr., but naturally, more experience and maturity will help the Ohio State product break out in year two. You can bank on that.
Remember, not every great wide receiver went off in their rookie year. His old man, Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison Sr., had an eerily similar rookie year as well: 64 receptions for 836 yards and eight touchdowns. Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, and Michael Irvin didn’t overwhelm opposing defenses as rookies, either.
A full year of NFL experience under his belt will help Harrison Jr. make the leap to greatness. Opposing defenses will have to account for McBride more as well, allowing MH JR to draw more favorable one-on-one matchups.
Harrison was good-but-not-great as a rookie. In 2025, he makes the jump to elite. Bank on it.
Decline Fast: Xavier Worthy

We’re not saying Worthy will go down as a draft bust. No sir. But for at least one year, the Kansas City Chiefs’ speedster will experience a drop in production. So hold off, fantasy football players. The breakout isn’t coming yet.
Worthy had a rock-solid rookie year with 59 catches for 638 and six touchdowns to go along with three rushing touchdowns. His 19 receptions, 287 yards, and three touchdowns all led the postseason, too.
So, why is the player with the fastest 40-yard dash time ever on the “Decline” aspect of the list? I mean, how could Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes not fully unlock his potential down the stretch?
Well, the obvious. KC’s top receiver, Rashee Rice, suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4 last year. Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown missed all but two regular-season games, but KC saw enough to bring him back on a one-year deal.
KC also brought back JuJu Smith-Schuster for another go and used a fourth-round pick on Utah State wideout Jalen Royals. At best, Worthy will be the Chiefs’ No. 3 pass-catcher. Mahomes won’t be feeding him as much with Rice and Brown both back in regular starting spots, not to mention that Travis Kelce is still there.
As one of the NFL’s best rookies in 2024, Worthy has the tools to eventually become Kansas City’s number one receiver, but Mahomes has too many guys to feed in 2025. So chalk this season down as a “sophomore slump” year for Worthy.
Bounce Back: Drake Maye

The North Carolina product showed flashes in his rookie year on a lousy New England Patriots team, tossing 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 13 games. Not bad considering he had football’s worst wide receiver corps and a bottom-tier offensive line.
But all arrows point toward a breakout year from the former No. 3 pick. For starters, how about the arrival of new head coach Mike Vrabel, who replaces the one-and-done Jerod Mayo? If Vrabel could turn Ryan Tannehill into a Pro Bowler and lead the Tennessee Titans to the AFC Championship Game, imagine what he could do with a highly talented QB like Maye.
Say what you want about Josh McDaniels, but the man has always done well as the New England Patriots’ offensive coordinator. His arrival is a mega win for Maye, too.
And then there’s the personnel upgrades. The Pats signed Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs, former Buffalo Bills speedster Mack Hollins, and veteran offensive linemen Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses.
At the draft, they took can’t-miss LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell at No. 4 overall and used day-two picks on bruising Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson and Washington State wideout Kyle Williams, rookies who should help the team.
Surrounded by a tremendous coaching staff and a much deeper set of playmakers, Maye’s ready to do what Mac Jones couldn’t do: Put it all together and cement himself as the long-term starter in Foxborough.
Decline Fast: Dallas Turner

The Minnesota Vikings surrendered a pretty penny to move up six spots via the Jacksonville Jaguars and take Turner 17th overall last year. Hindsight’s 20/20, but you know Minnesota would never do this move again in a do-over.
Turner played just 28 percent of Minnesota’s defensive snaps, logging three sacks. His mediocre 63.9 Pro Football Focus grade placed Turner 90th among 211 edge rushers, and his 55.2 pass-rushing grade ranked 149th.
And yet, it stands to get even worse for Turner in 2025.
In free agency, the Vikings bolstered their pass rush by signing Pro Bowl defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Scary when you consider that Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel combined for 23.5 sacks last year.
So…now what? Turner looks like the fourth or fifth-best pass rusher in Minnesota? How’s he supposed to break out again after being one of the most hyped rookies in 2024?
We’re not calling Dallas Turner a bust yet, not after one season. But for Minnesota fans hoping he’d take a big leap in year two, we say prepare yourselves. The circumstances and star-studded depth in Minny’s front seven will prevent him from doing so.
Bounce Back: Terrion Arnold

Arnold was the consensus top cornerback prospect of the 2024 Draft, so it felt like a mega win when he fell to the Detroit Lions at No. 24 overall.
But while fellow rookie corners Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell, and Nate Wiggins turned in excellent 2024 campaigns, Arnold’s jump to the NFL was anything but smooth. Per Pro Football Reference, he allowed four touchdowns in coverage and a 93.7 passer rating when targeted.
Arnold also finished with a brutal 51.5 PFF grade, including a 50.4 coverage grade. Indeed, it was a forgettable rookie year for the Alabama product.
But let’s not act like his career’s already a bust. I mean, recent great cornerbacks like Richard Sherman, Stephon Gilmore, Chris Harris Jr, and Denzel Ward didn’t break out as rookies.
Arnold was put in a lot of tough spots because of the onslaught of injuries in the Detroit defense. Dan Campbell and then-defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn just had to throw a bunch of pieces together and hope something would work, as opposed to utilizing Arnold best as an outside or slot corner.
Anyway, valuable playing experience and a healthy Detroit defense will help Arnold bounce back and put together a monster sophomore year. He was a big-time playmaker and shutdown guy at Alabama, and it’s only a matter of time until that version of Arnold translates over to the NFL.
Bank on it happening this year. Arnold, Brian Branch, and Kerby Joseph are about to become a nightmare defensive back trio.
Decline Fast: Taliese Fuaga

Fuaga had a decent but not great rookie year in 2024 on a lousy New Orleans Saints team. According to Pro Football Focus, he committed 10 penalties and allowed six sacks. His 65.7 PFF grade ranked 52nd among 140 offensive tackles, with his run-blocking grade of 69.5 somewhat making up for his porous blocking.
Not that it’ll be his fault, but things are about to get a lot more difficult for Fuaga as a sophomore. So, patience is a virtue for the Oregon State product and Saints fans.
The Saints just lost the longtime mainstay of their offensive line, Ryan Ramczyk, to retirement. They use their first-round pick of 2025 on rookie Kelvin Banks Jr., who’s sure to experience plenty of rookie growing pains.
Veteran quarterback Derek Carr unexpectedly retired, leaving the Saints with a QB room of Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough. And every offensive lineman will tell you how hard it is to go from blocking for a seasoned vet to blocking for an unproven young QB.
The Saints will be one of the league’s bottom-five teams in 2025. Fuaga is surrounded by football’s worst quarterback room and an atrocious offensive line that lost its best piece in Ramcyzk. Good luck to Fuaga on keeping this unit together in year two!
Bounce Back: Keon Coleman

Asking Coleman to step in and replace Stefon Diggs’ production immediately wasn’t fair. At the same time, Coleman didn’t quite produce as much as the Bills would have liked. Both can be true.
Buffalo drafted Coleman with the No. 33 selection, one spot before future Los Angeles Chargers star and 1,000-yard receiver Ladd McConkey. In 13 games, Coleman threw 29 passes for 556 yards and four touchdowns. Not bad, but not eye-popping either compared to other rookies.
But the stars are aligned for Coleman to have a strong bounce-back season, and not just because of natural growth and experience.
Josh Allen spread the ball out to all his pass-catchers last year. But the aforementioned Mack Hollins and trade deadline pickup Amari Cooper have departed, so Coleman is bound to get more targets.
Khalil Shakir was the Bills’ leading receiver last year, but Coleman’s got the highest upside among Buffalo’s pass-catching corps. They did not use an early draft pick to make Coleman a complementary piece, so expect Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady to prioritize getting the ball in his hands.
Hey, you can’t spell “The man” without Keon Coleman.
Decline Fast: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tracy Jr. was a pleasant surprise on an otherwise terrible New York Giants squad last year. With Saquon Barkley leaving for the Philadelphia Eagles, free agent signing Devin Singletary was supposed to take over as the Giants’ No. 1 RB.
But that title instead went to Tracy, who finished third in rushing among rookies with 839 yards and five touchdowns. Tracy finished with 1,123 yards of offense, forming a promising rookie offensive tandem with wideout Malik Nabers.
But Tyrone Tracy, fantasy owners beware! The sophomore slump is coming.
First, the obvious: The Giants signed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston before trading up for Jaxson Dart in round one. All three of those are mega upgrades over Daniel Jones and Drew Lock, meaning the Giants will be throwing the ball a lot more this year.
Singletary should get more carries, too, and don’t sleep on Arizona State rookie Cam Skattebo. He has the ability to follow Tracy’s footsteps and burst onto the scene out of nowhere as a rookie.
Bounce Back: J.J. McCarthy

The Vikings traded up to select the Michigan and national championship-winning quarterback with the No. 10 pick. The plan was for McCarthy to compete with Sam Darnold for the QB1 job, but the former required season-ending surgery on a torn meniscus before his professional career could commence in September.
Darnold seized the opportunity and had a career year, leading Minnesota to 14 wins en route to his first Pro Bowl selection. Confident in McCarthy’s abilities, the Vikings let Darnold walk to free agency, where he signed with the Seattle Seahawks.
If Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell can get a career year out of Darnold, we have no doubt he’ll maximize the talents of McCarthy.
His confidence, poise, accuracy and smart decision-making will make McCarthy a great fit on a star-studded Minny offense featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson and Aaron Jones.
Minnesota also strengthened its o-line by signing Will Fries and Ryan Kelly, before using their 2025 first-round pick on Ohio State guard Donovan Jackson.
With the reigning Coach of the Year and an all-star supporting cast surrounding him, expect McCarthy to break out and assert himself as the future in the Gopher State.
Decline Fast: Rome Odunze

Despite playing third-fiddle, if you will, to DJ Moore and Keenan Allen last year, Odunze still was one of the best rookies with 54 catches for 734 yards and three touchdowns. And that was with Caleb Williams playing behind the league’s worst offensive line…and with Matt Eberflus’ inept coaching holding the offense back.
A rebuilt offensive line and the arrival of Ben Johnson have brought much better vibes to Windy City this offseason. And with the Bears choosing to let Allen leave in free agency, all signs point to Odunze kicking it into another gear in 2025…right?
Well, not so fast.
DJ Moore is still the No. 1 receiver in Chicago. The Bears used their 2025 first-round pick on promising Michigan tight end Colston Loveland. With their second-round pick, Chicago took Missouri wideout Luther Burden III, projected by many to be a day-one selection.
With do-it-all running back D’Andre Swift and tight end Cole Kmet still in the fold as well, Williams will not be short on weapons. But the additions of Loveland and Burden mean fewer targets for Odunze, who’s not about to replace Moore as the No. 1 receiver.
There’s only one pie, and everyone needs a slice. Odunze still has the upside to become an All-Pro-level receiver, but we don’t see it happening this year, considering how many playmakers Williams must feed.
5 Rookies From 2024 Who Will Bounce Back and 5 Who Will Decline
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