5 Times Mel Kiper Was Dead Wrong About The NFL Draft…And 5 Times He Was Super Accurate
ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper is one of the very best in his field. To many football fans, he’s the go-to man of NFL mock drafts and scouting reports.
Kiper is so accomplished and well-respected in the industry that it’s natural for fans and other pundits to nitpick his wrong takes and predictions more than the ones he actually got right. You gotta give the man credit when he’s right, rather than just focus on the “wrong!”
We’re doing both for this list. Here are five instances where Kiper was super accurate, and five where he was dead wrong.
What are the biggest hits and misses from Mel Kiper in the NFL Draft?
Super Accurate: The Hype On Patrick Mahomes
It’s hard to believe that Mahomes wasn’t a highly-touted, hyped-up prospect compared to other elite young quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray.
Hey, don’t say Mr. Kiper didn’t warn you ahead of time. He was all aboard the Patrick Mahomes hype train, and surely, most other NFL clubs regret not listening to his scouting reports in 2017.
A week before the 2017 Draft, Mel Kiper offered this take on Mahomes:
This kid is just entertaining — he has no conscience when it comes to throwing the football. Now, that means he’ll throw some picks (he had 25 over the past two seasons), but he’ll also throw some 60-yard touchdown bombs. Mahomes (6-foot-2, 225 pounds) is not going to dink and dunk down the field like a lot of spread quarterbacks; he’ll throw it downfield early and often.
Ah yes. No conscience of throwing the football and racking up the deep bomb TDs to Tyreek Hill for four seasons. And yeah, not a dink-and-dunker guy at all. Kyper sure hit on these takes.
The Kansas City Chiefs traded up via the Buffalo Bills and took Mahomes with the No. 10 selection. After the selection, Kiper raved about Mahomes’ game. Let’s just say that the many takes have aged very well here.
Among them, Kiper said Mahomes:
-Was “ most entertaining quarterback to watch in a long time”
-” Has higher potential moving forward than people think.”
-” guts at throwing the football”
-” Would be written off because of the system he played at.”
All of those takes were correct. Finally, Kiper was right on the money here!
Check, check, check, check, and another check. Everything about Kiper’s evaluation of Mahomes here was spot-on.
Dead Wrong: Expecting Big Things From David Carr & Joey Harrington
The 2002 NFL Draft is not fondly remembered by Houston Texans or Detroit Lions fans.
The expansion Texans franchise was granted the first overall pick in the 2002 draft, and they used it on Fresno State quarterback David Carr. The QB-needy Lions took Oregon product Joey Harrington at No. 3 overall, right after the Carolina Panthers took future Hall of Famer Julius Peppers.
The renowned draft guru was a big fan of both Carr and Harrington.
Of course, BOTH Carr and Harrington turned out to be “busts” and “disappointments.” It’s hard to put the blame on the two men because they were never put in positions to succeed on their respective teams. Did you know Derek Carr’s older brother was sacked 76 (!) times in his rookie year?!
Carr went 22-and-53 as Houston’s starter over five seasons, tossing 59 touchdowns against 65 picks. If it’s any consolation, he would win a Super Bowl 46 ring as Eli Manning’s backup with the New York Giants.
Harrington lasted just four seasons in Motor City, going 18-and-37 as the starter. He completed just 54.7 percent of pass attempts for 60 touchdowns and 62 picks. He had the opportunity to revive his career with the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons in 2006 and 2007, but Harrington never got it going and was out of the league soon after.
Super Accurate: Perfect Matthew Stafford Prediction
If he ends up retiring from ESPN in the not-so-distant future, Mel Kiper should look for a job as a writer for The Simpsons. I mean, this guy and the beloved cartoon series have been right on the money when it comes to predicting very specific events.
Take the case with Matthew Stafford.
In 2006, Stafford and future Los Angeles Dodgers superstar pitcher Clayton Kershaw graduated from Highland Park High in Dallas County, Texas. Even BEFORE he took a snap at the college football level, Kiper said that Stafford was a future first overall pick in the NFL. In fact, Kiper said to “write it down.”
Indeed, in 2009, Stafford was taken first overall by the Detroit Lions. Unlike some of the previous quarterbacks that went first-overall, Stafford has gone on to piece a spectacular career – highlighted of course by a Super Bowl 56 championship.
Dead Wrong: The Jimmy Clausen Hype
Well, if he lived up to his word, Mr. Kiper would be retired by now.
Jimmy Clausen wasn’t exactly a can’t-miss QB prospect entering the 2010 NFL Draft. But Kiper was super high on Clausen in a class that wasn’t exactly filled with promising signal-callers.
Mel Kiper infamously offered the following take on Clausen:
“If Jimmy Clausen is not a successful quarterback in the NFL, I’m done. That’s it. I’m out.”
When fellow draft analyst Todd McShay asked Kiper for a “time frame” on the assessment, Kiper said eight years. Welp, Clausen didn’t even last eight seasons AS A BACKUP in the NFL!
The Carolina Panthers drafted Clausen in the second round at 48th overall. He lost nine of 10 starts and barely completed over half his pass attempts for 1,558 yards, three touchdowns, and nine picks.
The good news? Clausen’s awful play helped Carolina land the top selection in 2011, which they used on future MVP Cam Newton. Clausen didn’t throw a single pass over the 2011 to 2013 seasons. He made one start for the Chicago Bears in 2014, one more for them in 2015, and two for the Baltimore Ravens.
Clausen was out of the NFL for good soon after. News flash: Mel Kiper is “not done,” and he did not announce his retirement in 2018, eight years after his bold promise.
Super Accurate: Not Buying Johnny Manziel
Well ahead of the 2014 Draft, there was plenty of speculation that media darling and Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel would go first overall. Many scouts and pundits viewed Manziel as the next big thing, perhaps most notably Skip Bayless.
In September 2013, Kiper listed his top 10 prospects ahead of the draft. Johnny Football wasn’t on that list, much to Mr. Bayless’ chagrin. Kiper explained his rationale, and he certainly hit the jackpot on all of the key points.
Kiper added that Manziel didn’t belong in “the top 25”. Let’s just say that in a 2014 NFL re-draft, Manziel wouldn’t even go in the first two rounds. Well done, Mel.
The red flags on Manziel started coming up closer to the actual draft. He was viewed as a boom-or-bust prospect, and the potential first overall candidate didn’t actually go until the 22nd spot to the Cleveland Browns.
In fact, they traded up via the Philadelphia Eagles to get him.
It’s sad, but Manziel’s attitude, off-the-field issues, constant partying ways, and lack of effort and devotion to the game wound up ruining what could have been a promising career.
He made just 14 starts over two NFL seasons with the Browns, losing six of eight and having seven touchdowns against seven picks. It was mostly his attitude and off-field behavior that cut Manziel’s career short. Cleveland released Manziel in 2016, and no NFL team would ever sign him again.
Manziel tried his luck in the CFL, but also got nothing going there. He later joined the Memphis Express of the AAF, but that league folded before completing its first season.
Dead Wrong: Comparing Andre Wadsworth To Bruce Smith
Buffalo Bills legend and Hall of Famer Bruce Smith is the NFL’s all-time sacks king with 200.
He led Buffalo to four straight Super Bowl appearances in the ‘90s, won two Defensive Player of the Year awards, and earned 11 Pro Bowl selections. So, as you can tell, it’s pretty risky to compare ANY given pass rusher prospect to Smith.
Ahead of the 1998 Draft, Kiper ranked Florida State product Andre Wadsworth as the top prospect, even over Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, and Ryan Leaf. To Kiper’s credit, practically everyone expected Leaf to be great. But Wadsworth over Manning? Oooooh.
That wasn’t even Kiper’s biggest mistake in evaluating Wadsworth. Rather, it was comparing Wadsworth to Smith.
Wadsworth, ahem, lasted just three seasons in the NFL and finished with eight career sacks. He attempted a career comeback in 2007 but was cut by the New York Jets ahead of the season.
Only 192 sacks short of Bruce Smith’s record!
Super Accurate: Buying Brett Favre
Like Mahomes, Brett Favre wasn’t exactly viewed as a sure-thing slash can’t-miss prospect ahead of the NFL Draft. Hard to believe, we know.
But Kiper was a big-time believer in the Southern Miss product. In his 1991 draft report, Kiper projected that Favre would go 21st overall, though he actually had the Gunslinger ranked as the No. 17 prospect.
In his draft report, Mel Kiper had these notes on Favre:
-“This kid is a competitor, possesses above average physical skills, and did his damage against top competition during his four years as the starter.”
-” I really believe strongly that he has the natural ability and overall attitude to make the successful transition to the NFL.
Amazingly, Favre wasn’t even a round one pick! The Atlanta Falcons would use the No. 33 selection on Favre, and we all know how that turned out…for the Green Bay Packers!
In the 1991 draft, Kiper placed Favre No. 2 in his QB rankings. The draft guru also predicted that Favre would “outshine” Todd Maravich.
Three MVP awards, a Super Bowl 31 ring, 71,838 passing yards, and 508 career passing touchdowns later…Favre sure made Kiper look like a genius!
Dead Wrong: The Calvin Johnson & Brady Quinn Take
The Detroit Lions certainly haven’t drafted all too well in the 21st century, but taking wide receiver Calvin Johnson with the No. 2 pick in 2007 certainly proved to be worthwhile – and more!
Johnson was one of many future game-changing superstars to come out of this ‘07 class that also included Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Darrelle Revis, Patrick Willis and Marshawn Lynch.
Mel Kiper couldn’t understand the Lions’ decision to take Megatron. More specifically, he couldn’t believe they passed on Brady Quinn – another future QB draft bust who went to Cleveland in the No. 22 spot!
While Megatron put on a Hall of Fame career…Quinn made just 20 starts over four different seasons, losing 16 of ‘em. He had 12 touchdowns against 17 picks. Mr. Kiper, THAT’S “WHY” the Lions didn’t take Brady Quinn!
Super Accurate: Believing In Aaron Rodgers
The San Francisco 49ers drafted Alex Smith first overall in the 2005 draft, and don’t think for an instant that Aaron Rodgers didn’t take it personally. He very much did.
In a development that changed the NFL landscape forever, Rodgers fell all the way down to the Green Bay Packers at No. 24 overall. The Pack already had a franchise QB in Brett Favre, but the front office was too smart to pass on a signal-caller of his talents. They wouldn’t live to regret it.
Kiper’s old scouting report on Rodgers is crisp and clean, almost as if he traveled into the future back in 2005. Here are some of the notes that Kiper hit the jackpot on:
“There is a great deal to get excited about when projecting Rodgers to the next level. First of all, he turned out to be at least an inch taller and 10 pounds heavier than I anticipated. I’m also told that during the interview process with the top NFL brass, Rodgers definitely “wowed” everyone over with his poise, communication skills, and knowledge of the game.”
And on both Smith and Rodgers, Mel Kiper concluded with “I expect both QBs to enjoy solid, winning careers in the NFL.”
While 21 teams were silly enough to pass on Rodgers, Kiper was pumping the tires of the future superstar.
Hey, look, Mel was right all along! Rodgers would “only” become a future four-time NFL MVP, Super Bowl 45 champion, and multi-time First-Team All-Pro. Many view Rodgers as the most talented and decorated quarterback in NFL history, and we’re happy to side with that argument any time.
Dead Wrong: The JaMarcus Russell-John Elway Comparison
John Elway: First overall pick of 1983. Two-time Super Bowl champion, one-time MVP, nine-time Pro Bowler, and Pro Football Hall of Famer.
JaMarcus Russell: First overall pick of the stacked 2007 draft. Also, arguably the biggest draft bust in NFL history. Take your pick as to whether or not it’s Russell, David Carr, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Courtney Brown, or whatever.
After the Oakland Raiders took Russell first overall, Kiper had this hot take.
Kiper went as far as comparing Russell to arguably one of the 10 greatest quarterbacks to ever live. Sorry, Mel, but the internet doesn’t forget!
5 Times Mel Kiper Was Dead Wrong About The NFL Draft…And 5 Times He Was Super Accurate
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